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Market Snapshot
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Aging Renters
The Demographic Shift Behind New York’s Tight Rental Market
As New York's rental market grows, it's also getting older — and that shift is reshaping everything from affordability to mobility.
Generational divide: From 2005 to 2024, nearly all net growth in NYC rental households came from those aged 35 and up. Renters under 35 grew by fewer than 10,000 households, while those over 35 added more than 540,000 — a 24% increase. Their market share rose as the under-35 share fell from just over 30% to 26.5%, marking a clear demographic shift.
A tale of two age groups: Younger renters tend to be more economically sensitive, with their numbers rising and falling through downturns and recoveries. Older renters, by contrast, have grown steadily through the financial crisis, the pandemic, and beyond — pointing to a long-term structural shift rather than a temporary trend.
Not just a phase: The rental market is shifting from a transitional stop to a long-term housing solution, especially for older renters. Limited homeownership access, changing preferences, and financial barriers are keeping them in rentals longer, while younger households face growing challenges to rent independently — let alone buy.
Supply constraints: As older homeowners age in place — often mortgage-free — fewer ownership opportunities open up. That trapped demand shifts to rentals, where older renters stay longer, keeping the market tight despite slower population growth.
➥ THE TAKEAWAY
Long-term renters: NYC’s rental market isn't just growing — it's calcifying. With older renters settling in and younger ones sidelined, the city faces a slow-moving housing squeeze in which the core issue isn’t just how many renters there are, but how entrenched they've become.
Around New York
➥ Manhattan office leasing roared back in 2025, hitting 41.92M SF as tenants flocked to premium Class A space, tightening supply and driving rents to six-year peaks.
➥ Retailers are pivoting to Brooklyn and Queens as Manhattan's prime retail corridors hit record-low vacancy rates and soaring rents.
➥ Mayor Zohran Mamdani is taking office with a bold progressive agenda, promising a rent freeze, property tax reform, and a crackdown on negligent landlords—leaving NYC real estate bracing for impact.
➥ Affordable housing operators in NYC are being squeezed as rent collections stagnate well below pre-pandemic levels, forcing lenders to rethink underwriting and pushing buildings toward financial distress.
➥ Long Island’s office market hit a four-year low vacancy rate in Q3, with strong leasing demand, major signings, and falling unemployment.
➥ Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s first real estate move targets Pinnacle Group’s bankruptcy, stepping in to influence the sale of 5,100 rent-stabilized units and ensure future ownership prioritizes tenant rights and repairs.
Follow the Money
| OFFICE MANHATTAN Related Cos. and Oxford Properties secured a $1.6B construction loan—part of a $2.45B capitalization—for Manhattan’s 70 Hudson Yards, which will become Deloitte’s future U.S. HQ. |
| MULTIFAMILY MANHATTAN 5 Times Square has begun its $1.3B transformation from a vacant office tower into 1,250 rental apartments—part of NYC’s push to revitalize Midtown with more housing |
| OFFICE MANHATTAN Brookfield’s $835M CMBS loan on One New York Plaza has entered special servicing just days before maturity, as declining cash flow and occupancy drive a last-minute push for loan modification. |
| MIXED-USE BROOKLYN HUBB NYC capped off 2025 with a $40M acquisition of a 70-unit mixed-use building at 599 Baltic Street, continuing its Brooklyn buying streak. |
| OFFICE MANHATTAN The New York State Attorney General’s Office expanded its footprint at 28 Liberty Street, renewing 342,484 SF and adding nearly 36,000 more in a long-term deal. |
| MULTIFAMILY MANHATTAN 40 Fulton Street is set for a 169-unit residential conversion, as Blue Fin Equities pushes another FiDi office-to-housing transformation. |
📈 CHART OF THE WEEK
Despite a low 4.8% unemployment rate, NYC's key sectors—finance, entertainment, and professional services—have all shed jobs over the past year.
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